Gujarat Pre Poll Survey Election 2012 CNN-IBN7, Lokmat CSDS

CNN IBN 7 Gujarat Pre Poll Survey 30th October 2012
CSDS and CNN-IBN & IBN7 bring pre-poll survey in Gujarat Election 2012 today 30.10.2012 at 8:30 pm narendra modi will made a hat trick in Gujarat election 2012

[yop_poll id=”2″]

Will Narendra Modi score a resounding hat trick?

Gujarat poll vote projection: Modi lords over the state, Cong too far behind

In a two-cornered contest, a difference of 14 per cent in vote shares means that the race has been decided even before it started. And in Gujarat it is Modi all the way despite the conviction and sentencing of one of his former ministers in a 2002 riots case and the arrest of another in a fake encounter case.

Watch Online pre-poll survey by CSDS on CNN IBN IBN 7 today 30 oct 2012 pre poll survey on Gujarat at 9 pm

KEY FINDINGS

Estimated Votes: BJP widens lead over Cong, expected to get half the votes; Cong slides further

Party

2007(Actual)

Oct 2012 (Estimate)

Change since 2007

BJP

49

50

+1

Congress

38

36

-2

GPP

3

+3

Others

13

11

-2

Note: All figures are in percent; GPP or Gujarat Parivartan Party did not exist in 2007

BJP’s vote lead over Cong in Assembly elections expected to be highest ever; Cong stuck in the 30s

Party

1995

1998

2002

2007

Oct 2012 (Estimate)

BJP

43

45

50

49

50

Congress

33

35

39

38

36

Note: All figures are in percent; Rest for others

Pro-incumbency sentiment even greater now than it was five years ago

Should the BJP Govt. get another chance?

2007

BJP govt.

2012

BJP govt.

Yes

48

52

No

36

30

Can’t say/No opinion

16

18

Note: All figures are in percent; identical question was asked in 2007

Nearly half the respondents want Modi as CM; For BJP voters it’s Modi all the way, but Cong voters badly divided among their leaders and some also prefer Modi.

Chief Minister preference

All

BJP voters

Cong voters

Non-BJP, Non-Cong voters

Narendra Modi

49

90

12

11

Keshubhai Patel

8

1

3

54

Shankersinh Vaghela

6

1

18

1

Shaktisinh Gohil

4

0

11

0

Arjun Modhwadia

3

0

10

0

Amit Shah

2

3

2

0

Bharatsinh Solanki

1

0

4

0

Ahmed Patel

1

0

1

0

Note: All figures are in percent; Rest gave other preferences or had no opinion

Modi’s popularity at an all time high

Years

PREFERENCE FOR CHIEF MINISTER

Modi

Vaghela

Keshubhai

2002

37

16

6

2004

31

13

6

2007

42

8

3

2009

45

7

4

2012

49

6

8

All figures in Columns 2, 3 and 4 are in percent; Rest gave other preferences or had no opinion; Figures for 2004, 2007 and 2009 are from Post Poll Surveys; Figures for 2002 and 2012 are from Pre Poll Surveys.

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